Moon Jae-In’s presidency (2017-2022) raised high hopes worldwide for a rapprochement between the two Korean states. His policies were in the tradition of liberal predecessors, particularly Kim Dae-Jung’s Sunshine Policy, and were guided by three principles: “peace first,” denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and refraining from regime change in North Korea. The goal of these principles was to achieve a “peace regime.” Despite tireless efforts and small advances, power rivalries in the region, conflicting interests of domestic political actors, and, not least, a lack of common understanding of a concept of peace led to impediments to the rapprochement process. The Moon administration acted in a complex environment with factors that were partly beyond its control. While some factors were particularly favorable, such as parliamentary majorities, other factors were distinctly unfavorable, such as U.S. relations with China and North Korea. Coupled, these factors have rather hindered, or have at least limited, the Moon administration’s room for maneuver. It is questionable that relations will improve significantly under the newly elected government of Moon’s successor, Yoon Suk-Yeol. As a matter of fact, recent developments appear to indicate the opposite.
